أثر سعر الصرف على الاحتياطيات الأجنبية في ليبيا: (دراسة قياسية باستخدام نموذج ARDLخلال الفترة 1990-2023)

أثر سعر الصرف على الاحتياطيات الأجنبية في ليبيا

Abstract

This study aims to measure the effect of the exchange rate represented by the value of the Libyan dinar against the US dollar—on foreign exchange reserves, with exports included as a control independent variable, over the period 1990–2023. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used to estimate the short- and long-run relationships among the variables. The results indicate the existence of a cointegration relationship among the study variables. In the long run, there is a statistically significant positive effect of the exchange rate (depreciation of the Libyan dinar) on foreign reserves, while exports did not show a statistically significant effect over the sample period. In the short run, the exchange rate had a statistically significant negative effect in the second and third years, and increases in exports led to increases in foreign reserves; however, this effect was relatively weak and not persistent over time. The study recommends coordinating monetary and fiscal policies to stabilize the exchange rate in order to preserve foreign reserve stocks, diversify the economy, and reduce reliance on oil exports to mitigate the impact of external shocks arising from global oil price volatility.