تحليل قياسي لظاهرة التزاحم والتحفيز بين الائتمان العام والخاص في ليبيا عن طريق الاحتياطيات الفائضة (1980- 2024)

تحليل قياسي لظاهرة التزاحم والتحفيز بين الائتمان العام والخاص في ليبيا

Abstract

This study aims to examine the relationship between credit granted to the public and private sectors in Libya during 1980–2024, with a focus on the role of excess reserves of commercial banks as a mediator factor. The study employs two econometric models: one with private sector credit as a dependent variable and the other with public sector credit as a dependent variable, using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) method after confirming the presence of co-integration among the variables. The results reveal a crowding-out between the two sectors, where an increase in public sector credit by 1% leads to a 0.62% decrease in private sector credit, and vice versa, private sector credit increase by 1% reduces public sector credit by 0.63%. Furthermore, excess reserves are positively associated with credit granted to both sectors, highlighting the importance of banking liquidity in supporting economic activity. The study also noted that the impact of political events after 2011, with private sector credit increasing by 232% and public sector credit decreasing by 61% compared to the period before 2011 and up to the beginning of the research series.