Forecasting the value of non-oil exports in the Libyan economy for the years (2023-2035)

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the current behavior of the non-oil export in Libya and forecast their value in the future. The research data was obtained from the economic bulletin of the Central Bank of Libya, for the period 1970-2022, the research used the Box-Jenkins methodology and Exponential Smoothing Method (Holt method). The Box-Jenkins method three stages showed that the ARIMA (2,1,16) is the best model for forecasting the value of non-oil exports (2023-2035) in Libya. However, when comparing these results with Exponential Smoothing model (Holt mouthed) results, it was clear that the latter’s results are more significant and reliable in predicting the value of non-oil exports in the future, the forecast results showed that the value of non-oil exports takes a slow upward trend during the period (2023-2035).